The biggest game for the Fighting Irish since the 1993 game against what many had been calling “The Greatest Team of All Time,” the Seminoles of Florida State, is coming this Saturday.  Your Irish Musings staff will be together on campus for what we are calling The Pageant as part of a rabble rousing group of 20 Notre Dame fans.  Sorry—the group includes one Duke fan, who admits that the Blue Devils do not have a gridiron competitor, so he is now following the Irish!!

Most assuredly the one topic on everyone’s mind now is “Do the Irish have a chance against the Trojans?”  The latest we heard is that the bookies have Southern Cal as a 12 point favorite.  Whatever you do, do not bet: betting on points is a sucker’s game and has nothing to do with the outcome of the game.

Here is a remarkable summary for four predictions by CBS Sportsline writers:

The experts:

Prior to this Saturday we would have said no, that the Irish do not have a chance, but seeing Arizona score 21 second half points against them was an eye opener.  We do not know how many of you had access to the game, but we did through the Fox Sports Network.  Fox did a great job with the editing and announcing, making us wish the other networks could do as well. 

The Trojans are not perfect.  Their offensive line is not as good as their so called skill players.  Winston Justice, their right tackle, number 74, who should be one of their best linemen—he is certainly their most experienced—was beaten badly at least once, and at that time, the announcers said he had been having trouble with the Arizona defensive line right along.

The Trojan secondary is below average.  In particular, their cornerbacks looked bad, beaten on several occasions by several steps.  Actually, Mike Richardson, the way he is playing now, and Ambrose Wooden, most especially, are quite a bit better than the Trojan pair.  This observation brings us to what we believe is the single biggest weakness on the 2005 Fighting Irish.  It is the Defensive Line.  The line as a unit is the most unproductive we can remember.  Justin Tuck is very badly missed!!  They do not make very many tackles.  It is a bad sign when the corners and the safeties are making as many tackles near the box as they are.  Sure, it means that they are aggressive, but they have been too aggressive at times and will get burned by Southern Cal easily if they do not find some more strength up front.  Victor Abiamiri showed some improvement last week against the Boilers, but he is still far from the player that his incredible God given abundance of raw physical talent projects for him.  As the left end, he will line up opposite Justice and will have to come into his own this week if the Irish are to slow the Trojan point machine down. 

Victor Abiamiri, Chris Frome, Trent Laws and Derek Landri have been all but absent from the action.  Trent did block the field goal, but these guys just disappear from the tackling.  The four starters had a total of four tackles among them against Purdue.  Talley and Brown and Biedatsch have been used more and more and we do expect that the newcomers, Talley and Brown will play more this Saturday.  Charlie and Rick Minter are very high on these two sophomores.  They are rangy and quick, but at this point in their careers still lack the strength that they will have as they mature, and so their value is still as role players.

The weak D line puts a lot of pressure on the linebackers and especially on the cornerbacks (Wooden and Richardson made 16 tackles last week) to make most of the tackles.  Playing against a team with Bush and Jarrett and a host of other great receivers without a D line that carries its weight is asking for disaster.  Therefore, it is mandatory that the D line step up and play its best game if the Irish are to win.  As the game approaches, keep in mind some of the goal line stands the Irish have ignited this year, most notably at the end of regulation of the MSU game in order to see what this defense and this line is capable of.  Assume that Charlie will be playing the tape of that stand which came inches from causing a safety to the D every day.  On the bright side, the D line has stopped all but one out of 16 opponents’ third down attempts, while at the same time giving up a bunch of TDs.

What of Brady Quinn and the offense? 

Irish eyes are hoping Irish eyes are hoping

The passing game speaks for itself.  It is simply the most productive with a pass efficiency rating that must be way ahead of anything the Irish have ever fielded.  Brady completed 85% percent of his passes in the first half for nearly 290 yards.  He has undergone a remarkable transformation and is now on most Heisman watch lists.  The silly crouch is gone.  The inexplicable misses are all but gone.  And the inconsistency seems to be gone.  He is maturing beyond measure, as indicated by him checking off the run fifteen times against Purdue.

And Brady won The Sporting News Player of the Week Award!!

Quinn Named National Player of the Week By The Sporting News

In one short month, Weis and his staff have all but erased eight years of frustration in South Bend. There is much work to be done this season and beyond, but the blueprint has been

established and the recruiting machine appears to be operating on all cylinders. One has to wonder what Kevin White was thinking when he bargained away Notre Dame’s favorable position in the BCS payout pool.

More broadly the O has gone into another plane, scoring touchdowns seemingly at will.  Witness the Darius Walker and the John Carlson touchdowns!!  After eight years of ignominious predictability, the Irish show up with plays and sequences of plays that seem to spring from random play generator.  Charlie and Company has come close to solving the blitz completely, although it must be said that there are too many “hurries.”  That explains why we are not seeing the no back five receiver formation very often after its overuse in the Pitt game.  We expect the Trojans to try as many blitz packages as they can dream up, for this offense is still somewhat susceptible to the blitz. 

Darius Walker has been asked to carry a much heavier load, especially as a blocker picking up the blitz.  He has done this quite well and is getting better and better at it, but in the Purdue game his running suffered somewhat.  In fact he averaged a paltry 3.5 yards a carry, and we know that he must average close to 5.0 in most games for the Irish offense to be productive.  Some like Tom Prister of Blue and Gold are very critical of Darius:

Improvement Needed — Darius Walker’s decision-making on simple running plays is hurting the flow of Weis’ play calling and the offense in general. Turning a no-gain play into a five-yard loss offsets any positives that come out of dance and juke that results in a gain.

The Irish need consistency at halfback. Walker sets a passive, non-aggressive tone many times. It would be nice if Travis Thomas could come in and spell Walker occasionally. Walker is still the man, and he needs to be the lead back. But if Thomas could get five-to-seven meaningful carries, run north-south and bang it up inside, it would help compensate for some of the flow-slowing runs by Walker.

First and foremost, though, Walker needs to make better decisions. He can’t back into the line of scrimmage like he did one time inside the Purdue five. He’s better than that, he just needs to make better decisions.

We are not sure that we agree entirely, but we do think that Prister is onto something.  Darius has shown remarkable strength late in the game when called on.  But it is also true that we are waiting for him to break the long one.  Do you realize that Darius has not run for more than 20 yards on a single play?  His long runs, one for a TD against MSU was called back and the rest have been receptions, ala against Pitt.  If Southern Cal over-commits as they are bound to do, then he could have a very big day.

How is Southern Cal going to attack the Irish?  Give it some thought before you read on!

How else, but through the air?  Last year, the Irish held their running attack down.  In fact, in all three of the 31 point consecutive blow outs, the Irish have started off very strong.  Then they wilted.  Part of this wilting was caused by improper coaching and bad preparation.  This year the coaching staff has a psychological edge.  And so should the team!

And how will Charlie attack the Trojan D?  Again think a bit.

The weakest part of their defense is their corners.  Hence, they are vulnerable to the fade and the post.  Look for the Irish to go deep more than they have all year.  Jeff Samardzija has become an All-American candidate by demonstrating the most brilliant play at wide out since Derrick Mayes.

And what of Maurice Stovall?  He has truly come back from nowhere!!  He is showing remarkable talent and a new toughness that fans doubted he had.  Finally, Matt Shelton has found a new role with his sore knee, becoming a quick out possession receiver and catching balls that no one had any idea he could get to.

Nonetheless, recall that the Irish have been able to move the ball on this team.  They had a better D line last year, losing most of their stallions.  Charlie will play a possession game waiting for the opportunity for a quick strike.

Irish fans never dreamt their beloved team would be undefeated on the road at this point in the season, with good prospects, indeed the likelihood, of going undefeated on the road for the first time since 1993.  Charlie has already proven himself as worthy of the mantle of Knute, Leahy, Parseghian and Holtz to many of the faithful.  To others, the jury is still out.  They recall the false start in 2002, the eight victories with mirrors, but of course that is just the point.  Those games were mostly won with mirrors.  These games are being won with almost supernatural firepower.  Only time will tell, but Charlie has grabbed a hold of the hearts of the masses and it would take a complete flame out for the fervor to dissipate prematurely.

The raucous fans were back in ND Stadium at the MSU game for the first time since that LSU game when Jarious Jackson wrecked his knee in the end zone.  Just imagine what it will be like this Saturday.  If the Irish start off well, look for the frenzy the fans brought to the Florida State game in 93, a frenzy that swept Charlie Ward and his Seminole raiders nearly out of the Stadium in the second quarter—the only time we ever saw the fans actually contribute to winning a big game.

Blue and Gold has picked the Irish to win this contest, more out of heart than reason.  As they state, they do not want to be left out it the Irish pull it off!!

That is unlikely, but a lot more possible than most thought just a few weeks ago.  The Trojans are sloppy, unfocused and half asleep until the third quarter in most of their games.  Look for a very high scoring game, one in which the Irish pull ahead by ten or more points and then fight off a furious Trojan comeback, which ends in……………………………………

One caveat: 

The feckless Trojans have declined the option of video tape review.  This is a bad omen.

In the storied history of this marquee series, that at one time was the signature pageant of the college game, and is now returning to that elevated status, there are few examples of the officials stealing the game for the Irish.  Just one example comes to mind.  But there are at least four examples of the Irish losing to outrageous decisions.  Watch for the evil zebras that may have cost the Irish the Michigan State game.  (We have not seen the tape of the game, but several thoughtful letter writers claim that Schwapp and Walker should have had their touchdowns, and that the second Spartan TD was bobbled so badly that the receiver never had possession!)

The all time record in the years ending in 5 is 4 and 2.  The first game was in 1926 and the two teams did not travel to play in the war years, including 1945.  The Irish pulled big upsets in 1965 and in 1995!!  The 1985 win was a big surprise, although the teams were not ranked.  Southern Cal pulled an upset in 1955.  There were no rankings as we know them now until 1936:

1935  home           W      Notre Dame 20      Southern Cal 13

1955  away!!         L       Notre Dame 20      Southern Cal 42

1965  home           W      Notre Dame 28      Southern Cal   7

1975  home           L       Notre Dame 17      Southern Cal 24

1985  home           W      Notre Dame 37      Southern Cal   3

1995  home           W      Notre Dame 38      Southern Cal 10

Can any of you tell us about the 1935 game??

In the “5” years, Notre Dame has only lost once in five games in Notre Dame Stadium.  For some inexplicable reason back to back games were played on the coast once in the 40s and once in the 50s!!

In the six “5” games, none of the Irish Heisman trophy winners played, however, Mike Garrett, Trojan Heisman winner, was completely embarrassed in the rain in 1965, the revenge game for the 20-17 heartbreaker in 1964.

In the five home games in the 5 years, the Irish have averaged the following:

Notre Dame 35      Southern Cal 11.4

What will the 2005 game bring?