Clearly, the largest margins of advantage are as follows:

For the Irish

·        Passing offense—OSU is quite good, but the Irish are absolutely unbelievable!

·        Turnovers—this one is a major surprise, for the first tenet of Tressel Ball is to win the turnover battle, which the Buckeyes just did not do this year, to the consternation of the entire coaching staff in Columbus.

For OSU

·        Run defense—OSU is so good in this area of the game that it is hard to believe. 

·        Total defense—They are good here, beneath the numbers, they are weak in defending the long pass.

·        Kickoff returns—They are very good in this department, and ND is weak in defending the kickoff and has been for a long while.

What is the net take away?

We need to look deeper into the numbers and will as we go forward, but for now let us start with the expectation that Notre Dame will have one or two fewer turnovers than OSU.  This one stat is truly significant as Notre Dame has never lost a bowl game when they have won the turnover battle.

So far so good, but as we move to the rushing game we see major problems for the Irish.  OSU has a truly awesome defense against the run, which is underlined by the simple fact that the Buckeyes lead the country in this category.  When we consider that the Irish are relatively weaker running the ball compared to passing it, we have to conclude that the Irish will have trouble running the ball against the Buckeyes.  In fact, this will be the biggest challenge for the Irish.    

As the Irish prepare for the Buckeyes,

there are some encouraging signs for the running game.  One of them is that the Irish running game picked up toward the end of the season.  The other is that Darius Walker improved in the north/south portion of the running game.  Yet, in the end, Darius is best when running the stretch play, but the Buckeyes are best at killing the run with some of the best linebacking, led by AJ Hawk, ever seen.  And the stretch play as a staple in this game will be a recipe for disaster.   

If the Irish are relatively weaker at the running game than at the passing game, then the obvious conclusion is that the Irish will go crazy passing, or at least they will try to do so.

And yes, they may, but the Irish passing game is based on subtlety and on finesse.  The Buckeyes’ weakness on defense is with their corners and safeties who are six to seven inches smaller than the two big Irish receivers.  So, the Irish will kill these four defensive backs with the fade, the wheel route, the fly pattern and the post.  Sure!  Obvious.  Right?

Well, not so fast!  This is the conventional wisdom for sure, but real football games seldom follow the conventional wisdom.  And Charlie never never follows expectations.  Given that Charlie has five weeks to figure this one out, we have to assume that he will do the unexpected.  And what would that be?  Well, let us start with the running game.  First, he might put more emphasis on it than we expect him to.  Second, he might use Travis Thomas more often, since Travis’ slashing style is more conducive to beating the hard charging Buckeye line backer corps than Darius’ more subtle approach.  Reaching further, might he come up with a fullback who could drive forward for three or four yards on each of seven or eight carries?  Could Asaph Schwapp be this fullback?  Not based on what we have seen, although he has improved and five weeks is a long time.  If he could carry four times for 16 yards, it would make a big difference.

Our notion is that Charlie will think long and hard before he tries to pass for 450 yards while running for just 35 yards.  We expect that he will seek more balance than most expect from him.  Doing this sort of thing is just what has made him fearsome for being the most unpredictable offensive mind in the game.

Keep in mind that this is the end of the second season at ND for Charlie—at least in his mind.  He will have a healthy Darius at his disposal and the players, especially the O linemen should be at their strongest, thanks to…

What sort of surprises might Charlie have for the Buckeye pass defense?  Besides throwing long, deep and often, which they will expect, we think that Charlie will confound the OSU defense by throwing a lot of crossing and drag patterns which will be designed to go over the maniacally charging line backers and plop down into the soft zone underneath the deep coverage. 

Just like the long Samardzija run on the drag route that sunk Tennessee, look for the Irish to use Buckeye aggressiveness against them and while doing so, to gain lots of yardage after the catch.  These pass patterns will be designed to use the hard charging drive of the Buckeye linemen and backers against them.

Expect to see a good mix of the deep routes with acrobatic jumping receptions and the shorter middle routes designed to leave the Buckeyes in the dust looking up.

The Irish run a bevy of fake screens and double screens that could drive Hawk and his compadres crazy.  We expect Darius to gain lots of yardage as a receiver.

What about OSU’s offense and Notre Dame on defense?  This one looks more troubling on paper.  How will ND stop this balanced attack?  For a team that does so well on the ground, they are very good in the air and their quarterback is a killer.  Notre Dame has a history of being abused by quarterbacks who can run.

Irish Sports Report has picked OSU by a smidgeon and Blue and Gold has picked the Irish by three, so where does that leave us. 

The Buckeyes win the left brain analysis.  Undoubtedly, they are the better team on paper.  They have more strengths and they are more balanced.

The Irish win the right brain analysis, however.  They are having a magical season that has awakened the echoes.  The Phantom is back and there truly is a magic to the sound of their name.

The secret weapons are:

·        Conditioning and strength

·        The Irish D

·        Charlie

We think that Ruben Mendoza will kill his O linemen if they do not do the job.

We think that the Irish defense has received too much criticism.  More often than not they have risen to the occasion this year.  They stopped MSU when they had to and gave the offense a chance to win the game and darn near pushed the hated Spartans into the end zone for a safety, and if the officials had done their job, the Irish would have forced MSU to punt and give the O a chance to win in regulation.  The D was great against Tennessee.  The broke down against Stanford, but came back against them in the end for some of the best D of the year, with Abiamiri going wild at the end!  The D stopped the Trojans, but made the mistake of causing a fumble on the one yard line, which in irony of ironies is one of the few times in college football history when a defense causing the quarterback to fumble cost their team the game!!!

The biggest quirk of this edition of the Irish is the tendency to lose the edge offensively when they go up more than seven points.  Charlie must address this one big time and if he does and the Irish get the lead, they will pour it on and win.

Bottom line is that the Irish have a great chance to win and will win if they do the things they can do, but if they make a bunch of mistakes, then the Buckeyes will prevail.

Prediction: we give the Irish a 60% shot at it, and predict a close win, but this one is really really difficult to call.

See the piece on the next page:

Brady is coming back!