Over the past three seasons, our predictions have been just one game off in one of those seasons and right on the money in the other two.  As I look at this season, I find the outcome to be far more unpredictable than any season of the last three years. 

 

Why?

 

For many reasons:

·       No proven quarterback this year

·       The loss of a lot of very fine players, some of them all time greats, such as Quinn and Samardzija

·       A new Defensive Coordinator

·       The youngest Irish team in memory, perhaps ever!

·       Raw receivers

·       Two years of inconsistency in the O-line

·       Three years of disappointing defense

·       Five blow outs, two by USC, one by Michigan, one by LSU and one by OSU – okay, OSU really was not a blow out!

 

Growing up as a Brooklyn Dodger fan and cutting my sports teeth in Ebbets Field nurtured my optimism.  After all, the rallying cry at the end of every year was “Wait ‘til next year!”  And so it is, but Irish fans are never patient, nor is Charlie, fortunately for all of us.

There are many reasons to be optimistic:

 

·       ND has more raw talent and more fine athletes this year than at any time since 1993

·       Charlie’s recruiting is nothing short of miraculous

·       Even Charlie brags that he has lots more depth this year and will not have to play tired players.  Instead he will substitute.

·       He expresses great confidence in having six corners, whereas last year, he felt he only had two!

·       He has subs at linebacker, whereas last year he did not even have the baseline talent, hence the experiment with Travis at outside linebacker.

·       There is a stable of five running backs, any one of whom could conceivably have a game changing day.  

·       There is a lot of reason to believe that the O-line will be more experienced and more aggressive and more talented.  If not, there will be no excuse.

·       Perhaps most importantly, there is great reason to believe that the D will look like something from outer space compared to Minter’s hesitant left brainers.  This crowd will run to the ball and to the runner or receiver in droves.  Expect to see five and six Domers tackling a single ball carrier at times.  These guys are going to react, bump and run at the line of scrimmage, hit hard and so on.  Corwin will infect them with fanaticism.

·       Zibby is back, and oh, you say, so what!  Well the “so what” is that he was very badly injured in the Purdue game last year and that is why he performed so much under his 2005 level.  See the tape of the Tech game in which he is destroying ball carriers.  He missed a number of tackles last year and that will not happen this year.  Most players would have sat out the rest of the season!

 

 

Georgia Tech: Notre Dame is 8-0 all-time in season openers against the ACC.  In the school’s history, the Irish are 94-18-5 at home in season openers and 100-14-5 overall.  Notre Dame has won 18 of their past 21 openers.  Last year’s opening game against the Wreck was a fluke.  Chan Gailey has not had a successful career at Tech.  The bad qb is gone and so is the world class receiver.  The sticky wicket in the ointment is that they had a qb emerge in their bowl game who lit the world on fire.  So hold on to your seat during this game.  The difference between last year and this is that the Irish will have a pass rush and a potent and varied running attack. 

 

Penn State: Notre Dame has a terrible record in Beaver Valley.  The Irish beat them there in 1913 and in 1989!  That’s all Folks!!  The Nittany Lions were not as bad as they looked last year at ND, nor was Michigan nearly as good as they looked.  State College is a very difficult place for ND to win!  A victory here would shake the Earth!

 

Michigan: ND is 5 and 6 in the modern era at Ann Arbor.  ND has NEVER lost up there in the year after losing at ND Stadium.  We like the chances of the Irish here a lot more than at Penn State.  History favors the Irish here far more than at PSU. 

 

Michigan State: This is the toughest one, because with Boston College it is one of the two games that has been the most difficult to handicap over the past ten years or so, BC since 1993. 

 

Purdue: Notre Dame has done quite well thank you very much against the formerly nominated “Spoilermakers!”  A difficult place to play in and win at is Ross-Ade Stadium, which by the way is a very weird name for a college football stadium.  Is Purdue trying to crash the juice market or what?  Anyway, ND has lost to these guys just three times since Lou Holtz came into the picture.  During this period, only davieham managed a loss to the hapless Purdue Eleven!  Their coach is a minor level semi-genius who seems to do a great job of playing his treys and four cards while keeping his aces and kings in reserve for God knows what!!!  ND will vanquish these guys after a number of scares!

 

UCLA: The Bruins surprised us and everyone else last year, because of the new Defensive Coordinator.  He moved them from a rank in the 112 range to somewhere in the top quarter of all 1A teams.  Clearly, the Irish expect to replicate the miracle.  Corwin starts off a lot higher, however, as the Irish were ranked 65^th last year.  There is a talent challenge among the Uclans as they are trying to convert a tight end into a fullback, desperate because of two key injuries.  This team outplayed ND last year, at least for 59 minutes.  Don’t expect it to happen again.

 

boston college: Do you realize that the Irish have lost their last four games against the guys?  Of course, this is inexcusable, especially when there should not even be a series with them!!!  (If you doubt me, consult the Rock’s ghost!)  Incredibly, BC is 7 – 5 against the Irish starting with the disaster in 1993!  The notion here is that Charlie will not lose to BC, because he has better athletes, he is a better coach and he has the wind at his back.  Notre Dame will dispatch BC!

Southern Cal: Notre Dame fans are the only ones in the country who call the Trojans by this name.  That is fitting as ND v S Cal is a unique rivalry, the most storied in all of college football.  Any doubt about the status of this game was resolved in 2005 when the Irish shocked the football world and established the foundation for what is becoming the best recruiting class in the country this year.

It is difficult to imagine the Irish beating USC, but that is just the time for Notre Dame to rise to the occasion.  Notice that we give ND a 40% chance to win.  The reason is that Charlie established the possibility two years ago.  ND will play a tough game, much tougher defense, tougher and more aggressive than in 2005, And S Cal will be selling ND short the way they did in 2005.  The Trojans generally play much worse at Notre Dame than they do in their pagan arena. 

 

Bye Week: This is a total anomaly and should not be before the easiest game on the schedule. 

 

The Second Season: The Irish are not going to lose any of these games, no matter what happens in The First Season.  Three of the teams are probably not capable of beating ND and the fourth, Stanford would have to do it on a fluke like they almost did in 2005.  Some day Navy will beat ND, but not this year, for ND plays much better against the Midshipmen at ND than in the East.  Duke has few quality athletes and is the weakest team ND faces.  Air Force is still down since losing their head coach. 

 

The W/L method reads 10-2 but it is not the most accurate method of predicting. 

 

The gut feel method is that ND should lose two of the three power games (they are Penn State, Michigan and USC) one of the two games against the rivals who should not beat ND but have in fact driven the Irish the craziest recently, which are msu and bc of course and one of the games that they should not lose, which are GT, UCLA and Purdue.  That would be a 8-4 record.  Two of these three games are away and either Purdue or UCLA could rise up and beat a young and talented ND team that is playing like a bunch of sophomores and freshmen which is exactly what ND will be fielding.

 

The methodology based on probabilities has proven to be the most accurate so we are predicting a 9-3 season. 

 

Since there is no way to know what team ND will play in a bowl game, we do not predict that part of the season. 

 

Charlie Kenny