Irish Musings

2004, #1

This is the first annual pre-season issue of Irish Musings.

Before we start I want to introduce the new web site of the Notre Dame Club of Memphis.  You can find the current issue of Irish Musings here and will be able to go to the archives as well to see old issues as the season progresses. 

http://alumni.nd.edu/~ndc_memp/links.html

Tickets: We have a deserving young couple looking for two tickets to Michigan, and we have a small number of tickets for some games that look like they will be available—inquire via e mail to charlie@rightbrainpeople.com

As we look to the 2004 season, the hearts of the faithful are full of hope and anticipation for a turn around from last year’s disastrous season.

Some pundits, however, are wearing their hearts on their sleeves by saying we have nowhere to go but up!

Now that’s an emotional perspective for sure.  Where is it ordained that the Irish are going to have good seasons nearly all of the time?  That happy state of affairs has been true in four segments of seasons in the past, but in between the fans have suffered one ignominious defeat and one horrific season after another.  It is remarkable through all this agony that we still have the all time record winning percentage and that we still have the most players in the NFL.  But these are false markers and could easily seduce one into assuming that the Irish are still a top program.  In reality we are entering the eleventh year of a down cycle that began with the Boston College debacle in 1993. 

Keep in mind that we have not luxuriated in an uplifting end of season since that year, and if you have forgotten the victory over Texas A and M in the Cotton Bowl that year, you may wish to go back to the previous season to anchor yourself in the last two games being victories.  This fact alone is enough to be wary of overly optimistic prognostications for 2004.

We start with looking at the schedule:

The Irish typically play a small handful of POWER games each year.  Of course which games are truly power games sometimes depends on how things develop during the season.  This year Michigan, Tennessee and Southern Cal are the power games.  These programs are way ahead of the Irish and have more talent, more depth and more speed.  Coming off a season and a half of seven and ten—since the BC game in 2002—we have to assume the Irish will lose these three games. 

Stanford and Navy are virtually automatic.  Even though Navy has given us trouble in the recent past, the history is with us at Notre Dame Stadium where we score far more points than they do.  That leaves us with six games that are up in the air, all of which the Irish should win if they are better than last year.  But, if they are not better than last year, then they will lose most or all of these games.  Keeping in mind that in the best of years—except 1988 and 1989, the Irish have lost at least one game to a team that they were demonstrably superior to and should have beaten.  I am thinking of the painful losses to Boston College, Stanford, BYU, Pittsburgh and Northwestern. 

Looking at the schedule this way, the arithmetic is inescapable—a maximum of seven wins, by beating the two teams that are not in the same class and five of the six teams that are potentially comparable, while losing the three power games.

Here is a different way to analyze the opportunities this year—by assigning a probability of winning to each game and summing the probabilities:

BYU                     .7

Michigan               .2

MSU                     .4

Washington           .6

Purdue                  .7

Stanford                1.0

Navy                     1.0

Boston College      .6

Tennessee             .3

Pittsburg               .7
USC                     .1

The sum of the probabilities is 6.4 wins, which projects to a 6 and 5 or perhaps a 7 and 4 season.  This latter one feels about right—the exact same record as in 1979 when a fairly good Irish team went to Knoxville, as they will this year, and were slaughtered by a mediocre Tennessee team by a score of 42-18.

The optimists will accuse me of disloyalty and the skeptics will think I am being polyannish.  But this is how I see it and now let’s look at the micro picture and see why.

Here are the BGI picks—note they were polyannish last year:

OFFENSE

The Irish offense has been pathetic over the past three years and shows no promise of getting much better.  The mantra is three years to install a new system.  Well, if it takes three years, then the system is too complex and or the coaches don’t coach well and or the players are stupid or lack talent.  The notion here is that the so called West Coast Offense and Notre Dame are a bad mix.  We really don’t know yet, since we have yet to see the WCO per se.  What we have seen is just parts of it, and it does take the full package.  If a new coach comes in next year or the year after, I would bet it would be back to a multiple power offense like Lou ran.  That said, here is hoping that Ty can pull it off. 

From what we have seen over the past two years, the offensive coaching has been most offensive with linemen who don’t block and predictable running plays averaging less than two yards on first down.  What is there that says that this situation will be any better?  Not much, as the same fellows are back to coach and call plays.  The hope is that the offensive line will be much better after having had the experience of getting the stuffing knocked out of them last year and that Brady Quinn will be most improved and provide the leadership that last year’s team mysteriously lacked.  If these two hopes don’t materialize, the Irish could be just as bad as last year.  The thinking here is that the Irish will be improved but not enough for the offense to carry the load, and not as much as the optimists hope.  Keep in mind there is no proven running back coming back.  Despite his success two years ago, Ryan Grant was a big disappointment last year and behind him there is nothing but raw freshmen.  Expect sophomore Travis Thomas and one of the freshmen, most likely Justin Hoskins, to show up in the rotation early on.  Hoskins has shown power, speed and confidence so far in scrimmages and in practice.

DEFENSE

Last year the Defense lost the swagger and the edge that carried the Irish through the first eight games in 2002.  That they lost it should not have been such a big surprise after the fixed in the second half of the Southern Cal game in 2002 and for the entire North Carolina State game in the Bowl.

This year there are huge question marks in the defensive backfield, as always and in the defensive line.  The backs fixedd last year, with showings against Florida State and Southern Cal reminiscent of the worst Irish teams.  Then in the Syracuse game the defense did not show up and Ty lost his team. 

There is evidence of new talent and more speed this year, especially if Zbikowski emerges at free safety as he may—if you have heard rumors about him transferring, there is good reason to worry, although fans have some reassurance since he has returned to the team.  One clue—the more new numbers and faces you see in the backfield the greater the hope for success, as the players last year were just not quick enough and not aggressive enough.  Did anyone notice how Vontez Duff was not the same player one on one in 2003 that he had been in 2002?  It seemed like the same disease afflicted the entire backfield and other spots on the defense. 

The linebackers are the strength of the defense this year, but the team cannot suffer a major injury because the depth of experience and talent is just not there.  They key here is Mike Goolsby, for if he returns to the form he displayed in 2002 this corps will be much better than last year and will bolster the entire effort.  His loss for the entire year certainly began the slide of the defense and seemed to affect other players and positions as well as morale—it may be the single biggest factor in the fixed last year.

COACHING

The strength of the staff is Ty and the weakness of the staff is Ty.  He has yet to prove himself.  Mike Golic and others have pronounced that the players love him and respect him.  And he goes on to trash the 406 alums who wrote a letter of protest about the quality of the football program.  The jury is still out.  We know that the greatest coaches are not loved, at least not until the players have lived a good portion of their lives.  No one loved Rockne, Leahy, Lombardi or the Bear while they were playing for them!!!  Have times changed that much?  I doubt it. 

A more serious problem is what we can see, which is that Ty is phlegmatic.  You get what you see, which is not much.  No enthusiasm.  A dour disposition.  All business and no fun.  The problem is that the team has taken on this aspect of his personality—dull and boring.  Ty is intense alright, but his teams do not have fire in their belly.  Where is the evidence?  In the write ups lately the players said that they learned last year that they cannot “take plays off” and that they have to play all out from the first whistle.  This is incredible.  How could it be that they had to learn that on the field?  What is wrong?  And of course we saw this demeanor time and time again, most notably in the Florida State game.  And then a total fixed against Syracuse!

Two contrasts: Lou had a world class sense of humor and an articulated philosophy that he imparted to his team.  Ara had enthusiasm—when Kevin Hardy blocked the punt against Purdue on his first play as a sophomore and Alan Page ran it back 64 yards for a touchdown, Ara ran alongside him on the sideline like a little kid.

Here some specific plusses and minuses to look for as the season unfolds:

Here are the plusses:

MORE OVERALL TEAM SPEED—It is a popular misconception that Notre Dame suffers in overall team speed.  In general, this is not true.  Where the team falls down is in the use of individual speed and especially in pass coverage.  The good news is that the sophomores and the much maligned freshmen are the fastest athletes ever at Notre Dame.

EXHUBERANCE OF A YOUNG TEAM—This is a very young team and will have more freshmen and sophomores playing major minutes on offense and defense than any ND team in memory.

NOTHING TO LOSE—this one is a bit different from nowhere to go but up.  If the players come out and play with abandon against BYU, they could bring in a special edge to the game with the big bad Wolverines.  Keep in mind that the Irish have done surprisingly well against Michigan over the years.

A QB WHO COULD AND SHOULD LOOK MORE LIKE A JUNIOR THAN A SOPHOMORE—will this year’s team be Brady’s Bunch, or Brady’s Folly.  Seldom has more ridden on the shoulders of a sophomore quarterback.  Traditionally, it takes a junior to shine.  Hanratty is the one exception.

AN OFFENSIVE LINE THAT HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP—These guys truly were in the pits last year and so this is true.

A QUICKER AND HARDER HITTING DEFENSIVE SECONDARY—Look for Tommy Z to turn out their lights.

OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY OF SPECIAL TEAMS ESPECIALLY THE PUNTING TEAMS-----HOPEFULLY KICKOFF TEAMS AS WELL—The new punter should average four to five yards better than Fitzpatrick did last year.

TALENT AT WIDE OUT—Rhema McKnight has already proven himself and if he continues to improve, he will be considered for All American honors.  Maurice Stovall is the enigma.  He had a fine freshman year, showing as much or more raw talent as any wide out at Notre Dame in a long long time.  Last year, he played as though he was sleep walking, dropping balls and giving up on pass routes.  He has dedicated himself to reinventing himself.  If he does, he could fabulous.

Here are the minuses:

TWO LINES THAT ARE NOT PROVEN—See above.

ESPECIALLY MYSTERIOUS IS THE DEFENSIVE LINE—Tuck and Abiamiri give ND the best talent at defensive end since the 70s, but Kyle Budinscak is supposed to start with Tuck and both are coming off serious injuries (torn ACLs), and there is not a single proven defensive lineman besides them, although there is potential with Pauly and Laws.  Watch for Budinscak to play plenty of defensive tackle in third down situations, especially.

GIVEN THE FIVE AND SEVEN LAST YEAR, THIS TEAM COULD CAVE IN IF THEY GET OFF TO A BAD START—They all have to know that this year is a must win year.  If Ty loses six, he should be fired.  So, if the team loses to BYU, they will project a losing season and things could fall apart fast.  The pivot game is Michigan.  ND never had a good season after losing early to these guys.

STILL UNPROVEN QB----------SO A MIXED BLESSING-------------AND WITH NO BACK UP

NO RUNNING BACKS WHO ANYONE HAS ANY CONFIDENCE IN, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THIS OFFENSIVE LINE MUST STEP UP BIG TIME TO GIVE RYAN GRANT AND THOMAS SOME JUMP STARTS

OVERALL A TEAM THAT WILL BE YOUNGER, LESS EXPERIENCED AND LESS PROVEN THAN ANY OF THE TEAMS WE FACE IN OUR POWER GAMES—However, this year does have the advantage of facing mostly unproven quarterbacks.

A MURDEROUS SCHEDULE THAT ND HAS ALLOWED TO BECOME OUT OF CONTROL BY REPEATEDLY LOSING TO TEAMS THAT ND SHOULD NEVER OR ALMOST NEVER LOSE TO---------BOSTON COLLEGE BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE--------IN FACT ONE THAT ND SHOULD NEVER HAVE SCHEDULED IN THE FIRST PLACE IF THE ADMIN HAD PAYED ANY ATTENTION TO KNUTE ROCKNE. 

A HOME FIELD THAT NO LONGER HAS AN ADVANTAGE—Since the Stanford game in 1990 ND has lost its legendary home field advantage and many believe that the NBC contract has eviscerated it even further if for no other reason than tv time outs interrupting the momentum in the game and playing a role in taking the noise out.  One has to go back to the LSU and Florida State game in 1993 to find a time when the crowd noise was a factor.

A COACHING STAFF THAT DOES NOT INSPIRE, AND GIVES IRISH FANS NO REASON TO BELIEVE IN IT—Yet somehow the fans, at least many of them, persist on believing—believing in the players, in the mystique.  Keep in mind though, that the fortunes of ND has risen and fallen on the shoulders of four great coaches and that the record under the others is abysmal.  Two exceptions are Layden and Devine, but neither had what it really takes.  They did well (mid seventies winning percentage) but were driven off for failure to measure up and for some personal characteristics, which are always important.

You may wish to say a prayer that the players and all associated with the team stay safe and healthy.  We don’t pray for victory.  Do you? 

If you do pray for a healthy and safe game, here is an image for your consideration:

http://www.nd.edu/aboutnd/about/sights/images/gal_grottonight_lg.jpg

We end with the fervent hope that you will all be e mailing me or calling me throughout the season berating me for being too pessimistic about the prospects for the Team that plays under the….

See story below about local boy!!

Jeff Cottam could attend two Notre Dame football games this fall.


 

It’s just that one of them figures to be when the Irish travel to Knoxville, Tenn., to take on the Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. That visit will double as a reunion of sorts for Cottam, whose older brother Brad signed with Tennessee in 2003. Since then the older Cottam has been the best recruiter any college program could hope for.

The Germantown, Tenn., tight end puts the Volunteers at the top of his list with Notre Dame, Mississippi and Auburn in the second tier. The Irish are the only school that hasn’t offered a scholarship, something that would be required for Cottam to make an official visit to the Midwest.

“I’m really interested (in Notre Dame),” Cottam said. “They’ve got a good football tradition and I know they’re a good school. I heard a lot about them growing up.”

Just not as much as Cottam heard about Tennessee. The 6-foot-7, 250-pound athlete said he could see himself fitting in at Knoxville and reuniting with his brother, who played at a different high school for half of their prep careers. The only drawback of picking Tennessee would be potentially waiting in line at tight end behind his sibling.

“He’s encouraging me to go there,” Cottam said. “But he wants whatever is best for me. I’ve thought about (competing with him) a lot, even sitting the bench a few years.”

With playing time near the top of Cottam’s wish list, it could push Mississippi and Auburn up his recruiting queue, two schools where the tight end believes he can get on the field much quicker than at Tennessee. If Cottam chose Notre Dame, he would enroll with three other tight ends already on the roster in Anthony Fasano, Marcus Freeman and John Carlson.

“I want to go somewhere where I can get some playing time as soon as possible,” Cottam said. “Ole Miss is real close and in the past few years I’ve watched a lot of games and have become somewhat of a fan. With Auburn, I don’t know, I just think I could get some playing time early there. It’s not a bad school.”

Cottam’s Germantown team opened its state title defense on Aug. 20 with a 15-14 victory over Covington that required some last-minute heroics. Germantown needed about a 65-yard bomb that set the Red Devils up deep in opposing territory for the go-ahead score.

“We know we’ve got a lot of work to do to be as good as last year,” Cottam said. “I did alright. I guess I blocked pretty good. We’ve got a new quarterback that’s a sophomore. He’s got to learn all the routes before we start throwing a lot. But we’re more of a run oriented team anyway.”

Charlie Kenny

Class of 1963

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